Can Large Audio Language Models reliably judge speech-to-speech models?

July 21, 2026  ·  Research
Core problem

Speech Quality Has No Answer Key

Measuring the quality of LLM output is challenging because quality isn’t purely objective. It carries subjective human preference, especially for open-domain prompts where “correct” isn’t well defined.

Evaluating speech-to-speech (S2S) models is even more challenging. It inherits every challenge of text evaluation, and adds several of its own:

  • Paralinguistic signals are hard to measure. Prosody, emphasis, and timing all convey semantic information, and there’s no consensus way to categorize or measure these signals.
  • There’s no single right answer. The text–speech mapping is many-to-many: one sentence may have many valid vocalizations, and one audio clip may have many valid transcripts.
  • Semantic and acoustic quality are orthogonal. Acoustic quality varies independently of semantic quality: output can sound great and be nonsense, or sound bad and be perfectly coherent.
  • Inputs are uncontrolled. Speaker, environment, noise, and recording device all vary at inference time, and are often different from training conditions.

There’s no objective notion of correctness for naturalness, emotional fit, or conversational quality. In these domains, “correctness” is defined by subjective human preference, and preference may differ substantially from person to person.

One way to define quality in these cases is to ask several different human raters to express their preference, and aggregate these opinions into a single metric. However, this approach is slow and expensive. Leveraging a Large Audio Language Model (LALM) as a judge is a compelling alternative, but its reliability depends heavily on what you ask it to evaluate.

The central question we address in this post is:

When is an LALM judge a good enough proxy for human preference, and when do you still need human-in-the-loop evaluation?

Current landscape

How S2S Evaluations Work Today

There are three main ways S2S model outputs are scored today, each with its own tradeoffs.

Deterministic metrics compute a repeatable, well-defined score from signal-level metrics on the output (e.g., DSP metrics for acoustic quality, speaker-similarity cosine distance) or a check that the execution environment reached the expected end state.

Model-as-judge evaluation asks another LLM or LALM to rate response quality, either pointwise (one response scored in isolation) or pairwise (relative quality of two responses scored against each other), either from the transcript (LLM-as-judge) or directly from the audio (LALM-as-judge).

Human evaluation asks people to rate model outputs, pointwise or pairwise, in the same settings as above.

Deterministic metrics should be used wherever possible: they’re fast, cheap, interpretable, and comparable across models and evaluation runs over time. When they fail to capture an important quality signal, a model-as-judge approach is a scalable alternative to human ratings, provided you can validate that it correlates well with human preference. Where it doesn’t, you need actual human ratings.

Prior work

What Existing Research Tells Us About Model-as-Judge Reliability

The research to date suggests that judge reliability varies dramatically depending on what dimension of quality you’re measuring, how you elicit the judgment, and how much you’ve invested in specializing the judge.

Judges Align Most Closely With Humans on Lexical Content

When the quality signal lives in the words that were said rather than how they were said, judges can be as reliable as humans. The evidence is somewhat mixed on whether you should expect a cascade of ASR → LLM-as-judge to outperform native LALM-as-judge on these lexically-dominated tasks: some papers find that LALMs outperform a cascade when using a relatively weak ASR model, while others find that cascade approaches tend to outperform LALMs. Regardless, most academic literature is anchored on the previous generation of LALMs (Gemini 2.5 Pro and GPT-4o). It is likely that neither approach strictly dominates today, and the true best judge will vary on the specific task. However, given the token density of text is typically significantly lower than audio, cascade systems are often the best starting point if you have reason to expect quality to be dominated by the lexical content for your evaluation task.

Judges Lag on Naturalness and Paralinguistics

Several studies have found LALM judges to correlate poorly with human judgments on emotion, emphasis, and style. Other studies have found LALMs fail to handle nonverbal dimensions robustly, and are outperformed by cascade systems when the cascaded LLM is provided textual annotations describing the acoustic cues (i.e. once some other system has done the perceptual work).

Specialized Judges Close the Gap, but Don’t Generalize

Recent work has found that fine-tuning an LALM for a specific paralinguistic task can beat frontier generalists LALM models. However, a major downside of this approach is that specialized judges are not general: they are trained and validated on particular distributions of languages, styles, and audio data, and their advantage is measured against benchmarks whose labels carry their own construction choices and annotation noise. Whether and how well a judge fine-tuned on a particular task and data domain transfers to neighboring tasks and domains is not well understood in any theoretical framework today, and would need to be assessed empirically on a case-by-case basis.

Reliability Depends on the Protocol

Even the most capable judges are fragile, with evidence showing that verdicts shift depending on clip ordering, audio concatenation strategy, and overall response length. Pairwise judgments routinely flip under equivalent prompt templates or resampling. Similarly, multiple studies have shown that pairwise preference is steadier than pointwise metrics, but judges still force winners on negligible gaps.

Our Experiment

Methodology and Results

We ran a series of experiments comparing LALM judges against our own calibrated human raters, assessing the output quality of two SOTA S2S models (GPT-Realtime-2, Marin voice; and Gemini 3.1 Flash Live, Kore voice) across 15 rubric dimensions. Model output was captured for 80 human-recorded input prompts, which we split into 40 output pairs for human MOS (Mean Opinion Score, pointwise) assessment and 40 output pairs for human CMOS (Comparative Mean Opinion Score, pairwise) assessment. All 80 pairs were also scored by three LALM judges (Gemini 2.5 Flash, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and GPT-audio). The full protocol is available in the appendix of this post.

Model Provider
S2S models GPT-Realtime-2 (Marin voice) OpenAI
Gemini 3.1 Flash Live (Kore voice) Google
Judges GPT-Audio OpenAI
Gemini 2.5 FlashGoogle
Gemini 2.5 ProGoogle
Human panel (8 raters per sample)-
Table 1: The two S2S systems under evaluation, the three LALM judges, and the human panel used as ground truth.
FamilyMetrics
Content Qualityanswer quality, helpfulness, instruction following, reasoning, register, relevance
Acoustic Qualityappropriateness, audio quality, naturalness, pleasantness, pronunciation, speaker drift, style adherence
Interaction Qualityemotional appropriateness, engagement
Table 2: Our 15 quality metrics grouped by family. Instruction following, reasoning, and style adherence rubrics were only assessed on prompts that were tagged as requiring the associated behavior.

Inter-Rater Agreement

Before assessing LALM-as-judge performance, we need to understand inter-rater agreement in our dataset, as this sets the maximum achievable ceiling for a judge model - even a perfect LALM judge cannot show strong correlation with human preferences when humans don’t agree with each other.

To assess the achievable ceiling for an LALM judge model, we first look at split-half correlation across human raters (a randomly selected half of raters correlated against the other half of human raters) by rubric category across MOS scores:

FamilyCellsHuman r (½-panel)Human ρ (½)Ceiling r (full)
Content340+0.69+0.37+0.76
Acoustic480+0.82+0.31+0.90
Interaction160+0.79+0.47+0.88
Table 3: Split-half human inter-rater agreement by rubric family on the MOS pass - rubric-averaged (macro) Pearson r and Spearman ρ between random half-panels, with the full-panel Pearson ceiling.

A fuller comparison with CMOS inter-rater agreement metrics, along with an exploration of some alternative correlation metrics, is in the appendix at the end of this post.

Judges Track Human Performance on Content, and Diverge on Acoustics

Consistent with the available literature, the strongest pattern we saw was that judge reliability varies sharply across evaluation dimensions. All three LALM judges agreed closely with human raters on “content” rubrics such as answer quality, relevance, and instruction following. That agreement broke down on acoustic rubrics, including naturalness, emotional appropriateness, and pronunciation.

Judge Overall ρ By quality family - Spearman ρ
Content Interaction Acoustic
GPT-Audio0.20
Gemini 2.5 Flash0.24
Gemini 2.5 Pro0.24
Human (inter-rater)0.360.370.470.31
Table 4: LALM judge and human evaluator correlation. Overall (macro-averaged across rubrics) Spearman ρ between each judge and the human panel on the pointwise MOS pass, with per-family Spearman ρ. Underlying pooled correlations are all highly significant (p<1e-17, n≈900).

Judges Split on Acoustic Preference

While judges largely agree with each other on content quality metrics, they have systematic preferences on acoustic quality metrics. In other words, it’s not just that judges are poorly correlated with human ratings - each model also has unique and strong biases. Perhaps unsurprisingly, judges tend to prefer their own family of models on acoustic dimensions:

Metric GPT-Audio Gemini-Flash Gemini-Pro Human
Table 5: Per-metric CMOS, oriented so positive favors GPT-Realtime-2 and negative favors Gemini 3.1 Flash Live. Human is the calibrated ground-truth panel. Click a row to inspect it.

In principle you would always prefer to use a judge model that’s unrelated to any of the models under test, but in practice there are a limited number of model providers with SOTA performance, and it is not unusual for evals to rely on judge models from the same family as some of the models being evaluated.

Note that systematic bias can exist in the presence of strong correlation; it’s entirely possible for a judge to be correlated (tending to move up and down in sync) with human ratings and also biased (showing a strong preference in one direction on average). Both systematic bias and poor correlation are problematic when relying on models as judges.

LALMs Show (Some) Expected Systematic Biases

Our data largely replicated both the positional and verbosity biases present in the literature, though it is inconsistent across models.

First-clip position bias

β · higher = stronger pull toward the first clip
human
+0.08
gpt-audio
+0.74
gemini-flash
+0.07
gemini-pro
+0.08

Verbosity bias

r · positive = prefers the longer response
human
−0.09
gpt-audio
+0.20
gemini-flash
+0.23
gemini-pro
+0.03

Position bias. GPT-audio showed strong first-clip bias (β = +0.74). The Gemini judges were near-neutral (+0.07 and +0.08). GPT-audio’s bias peaked on the acoustic dimensions where it correlated weakly with humans (naturalness +1.53, speaker drift +1.46, pronunciation +1.03), which looks like a model defaulting to the first option when it’s unsure.

Verbosity bias. LALM judges leaned toward longer responses; humans didn’t. Human CMOS showed no length preference (r = -0.09), whereas the LALM judges all leaned positive (gpt-audio +0.20, gemini-flash +0.23, gemini-pro +0.03). This is important because GPT-Realtime-2 tends to produce longer responses than Gemini 3.1 Flash Live (+7.9s mean, longer 70% of the time). The pattern held even among the 147 ratings where humans called a tie (3-judge average +0.16), splitting to +0.35 when GPT-Realtime-2 was the longer response and -0.18 when Gemini 3.1 Flash Live was. The consistent direction across three judges, against a flat human baseline, suggests verbosity bias is a judge-side artifact rather than a genuine quality signal.

Human and LALM Judges Fail Differently

Human failures are mostly operational - clicking the wrong button, losing focus, fatigue, and anchoring on distractor quality cues like loudness. These failures can be mitigated through a combination of scale, calibration, and proper experimental design (volume normalization, randomized order, blind review, agreement monitoring, etc.).

LALM judge failures are characteristically different - hallucination, overconfidence, sycophancy, and reasoning breakdowns. Here is a rollout from our dataset that makes this point clear:

We made this prompt intentionally vague to test whether a model asks for clarification instead of hallucinating. Humans strongly preferred the Gemini response for answer quality, while LALM judges strongly preferred the GPT-Realtime-2 response that hallucinated details not in the prompt. Investigating the judge reasoning traces, we see they invented a shared visual context (assuming the user could see it) and rewarded the model that hallucinated detail. All three penalized the clarifying question as a non-answer.

This particular failure mode could likely be patched with careful prompt engineering of the judge model - spelling out that it should judge responses only on the provided details and treat extraneous details as a hallucination - but that only works for failure modes you already know about. Identifying the “unknown unknown” failure modes means manually reviewing model output, starting with the cases where human and judge preferences diverge most sharply.

Aggregate Metrics Hide Real Failures

Even a well-designed metric can bury critical failures that it’s not designed to surface - a metric that weights every sample equally (like MOS and CMOS) will bury a rare but severe failure among dozens of ordinary ones. If the catastrophic failure rate is what you care about, an averaged preference score simply won’t surface that, and you need a separate pass built to catch the tail.

Likewise, some problems are obvious to a human listener but may not map cleanly onto any single rubric, so other factors drown them out even on the rubric meant to capture them. Below are a few examples of this phenomenon from our evaluation:

Listening note: these audio defects are noticeable, but can be easy to miss in a noisy environment. We recommend listening with headphones or in a quiet, sound-isolated setting.

Pronunciation errors
langagelanguage0:06
0:00

Pronunciation MOS for example 1

GPT-audio5.0
Gemini 2.5 Flash5.0
Gemini 2.5 Pro5.0
Human panel3.25
012345
cardscarbs0:02
0:00

Pronunciation MOS for example 2

GPT-audio4.0
Gemini 2.5 Flash5.0
Gemini 2.5 Pro5.0
Human panel4.12
012345
step by sepstep by step0:03
0:00

Pronunciation MOS for example 3

GPT-audio5.0
Gemini 2.5 Flash5.0
Gemini 2.5 Pro5.0
Human panel4.62
012345

The models occasionally mispronounce words. None of the LALM judges caught any of them. Even amongst human raters, only 9 of 24 ratings (~38%) flagged the issue across the three clips, and even then it barely moved the score: the clips averaged 4.0/5 on the pronunciation rubric despite every one containing an audible error.

LALMs are not yet reliable judges of pronunciation, and while humans notice the issue in aggregate, the score doesn’t reliably reflect it, even when raters are asked about pronunciation directly.

Scores are only part of the evaluation signal. While pairwise judgments are generally considered more sensitive and reliable than pointwise judgments, we found that raters consistently wrote sharper free-text comments on the MOS tasks than on CMOS. We hypothesize that judging a sample in isolation pushes people to attend to the sample itself rather than the comparison. Whatever the cause, those comments were among the most useful signals we collected, and indicate that running a single MOS pass with a free-text field purely for the qualitative layer may be valuable, even when CMOS is your headline metric.

Limitations

These are early results, not a full academic paper, and we want to be clear-eyed about the limitations in this analysis:

  • Easy prompts. We built the prompt set to sit well within reach of modern S2S models, so the high human scores are unsurprising. The human-versus-judge gap could look quite different on harder or more divisive prompts, where answers grow more complex and inter-rater agreement drops.
  • Small sample. The analysis rests on 40 prompts through MOS and 40 through CMOS. The patterns are suggestive rather than definitive, and we would want more data before treating any single number as settled.
  • Fixed rubrics. We did not experiment with rubric wording. These may not be the right dimensions, and sharper phrasing could shift the results for humans and judges alike.
  • Judge-model overlap. The judges come from the same families as the systems under evaluation. That is hard to avoid with so few SOTA providers, but it remains a real confound. We tried open source judges as a neutral alternative, but they trailed badly on agreement with humans.
  • Judge-model quality. We did not evaluate Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview or GPT-Audio-1.5 as judge models because of concerns that they may share the same base model or training mix as the models under evaluation.

Any general conclusions about LALM-as-judge performance should be tempered by the understanding that current-gen models are likely the best judges as well as the best-performing S2S models.

Key takeaways

Lessons for Running a Good Evaluation

When to Evaluate With Humans vs LALM Judges

  • Use an LALM judge only where you’ve shown it can approximate humans. Today that’s content and lexical dimensions: answer quality, relevance, instruction following.
  • Use humans for what model judges are bad at. Send everything acoustic or paralinguistic to humans (naturalness, emotional appropriateness, register, speaker drift), plus any new rubric or mode you haven’t validated a judge against.
  • Always read the free text. An LALM judge’s reasoning is downstream of its own verdict. A human’s comment is a separate judgment, and it catches what the score misses.
  • At small-to-medium scale, just use humans. De-biasing an LALM model judge only pays off at scale.

How to Run an LALM Judge Well

  • Prefer pairwise judgments with explicit criteria, and allow ties. Split lexical, acoustic, and paralinguistic into separate judgments. It beats one holistic verdict and gives a better failure signal.
  • Start every novel evaluation as HITL. Human ratings are how you earn the confidence to automate. Before scaling a judge, measure its agreement against a human-labelled subset from your own distribution, its flip rate under resampling, and its agreement with a judge from another provider.
  • Be paranoid about judge stability. Ablate concatenation, clip order, prompt templates, in-context examples, and auxiliary text. Randomize and counterbalance order. Control for length. Use an out-of-family judge or ensemble across providers where you can, and quantify the bias where you can’t.
  • Expect the optimal setup to be judge- and task-specific. What helps one judge often fails on another. Validate per judge.
  • Resampling and aggregating is better than setting temperature to 0. The weak convention in the field today is greedy decoding for reproducibility. However, some recent work has found that higher temperature settings are more appropriate for scenarios involving substantial ambiguity or complexity, and empirical evidence has shown that nondeterministic sampling improves alignment with human preferences. Instead of setting temperature to 0, you should aim for consistency by rerunning the judge multiple times and looking for consensus.

Appendix

Rubrics by Family

Rubric familyMetricDescription
Content Qualityanswer qualityWas it thorough and high-quality?
helpfulnessHow helpful was the response in achieving the goal of the interaction?
instruction followingDid the response follow any instructions or constraints provided by the user?
reasoningWas the reasoning correct and logically sound?
registerDid the words used sound like natural spoken dialog rather than written language?
relevanceDid the response indicate that the model correctly understood the prompt?
Acoustic QualityappropriatenessDid the pitch, pace, and emphasis make sense for what it was said?
audio qualityHow good did the audio sound?
naturalnessDid the response sound like a natural human speaker?
pleasantnessHow pleasant was the response to listen to?
pronunciationWas the pronunciation used throughout the response correct and consistent?
speaker driftWas the speaking voice consistent throughout, or did it noticeably change over time?
style adherenceDid the response follow any style requirements provided by the user?
Interaction Qualityemotional appropriatenessDid the emotional tone feel appropriate for the situation and content?
engagementHow engaging was the response?
Table 6: Quality rubrics and their definitions, grouped by family.

Responses were split evenly: 40 prompts through Mean Opinion Scores (MOS) and 40 through Comparative Mean Opinion Scores (CMOS), both blind and order-randomized. Twelve rubrics applied to every response. Three were gated to tagged prompts: instruction following (20 prompts, 10 MOS / 10 CMOS), reasoning (10, 5 / 5), and style adherence (10, 5 / 5). Every rubric had an optional free-text field. All 80 prompts then went through three LALM judges (Gemini 2.5 Flash, Gemini 2.5 Pro, GPT-audio), ablating settings and prompt structure.

Complete Results

MOS - Gemini 3.1 Flash Live MOS - GPT-Realtime-2 CMOS
Metric gpt-audio gemini-flash gemini-pro human gpt-audio gemini-flash gemini-pro human gpt-audio gemini-flash gemini-pro human
Table 7: MOS and CMOS scores across all rubric fields. For CMOS, positive favors GPT-Realtime-2 and negative favors Gemini 3.1 Flash Live.

Prompt Design

We generated 80 text prompts from our own internal taxonomy of “objectives” (which describe what behavior or capability an eval prompt is targeting) and “domains” (which describe the subject or content of the prompt). For this eval, we limited the categories to:

Objective CategoryExample User Prompt
Casual ExchangeYou know, the more I think about it, the more I wonder if camping is just, like, paying to pretend you’re stranded on purpose. Why do people love it?
Creative GenerationCan you, um, think of a short motivational quote for someone who’s, like, feeling sorta stuck, but keep it light, not too serious?
Emotion ResponseSo, after reading about that last data breach, I just feel this creeping sense of dread every time I log in anywhere. Is that just how things are now?
Instruction FollowingGive me a summary of the rules of basketball, but keep it under 50 words and make it sound enthusiastic.
Ambiguous Intent ClarificationUm, am I supposed to bring this paper with me, or just the card? Or do I even need either one?
Long-range CoherenceExplain from scratch how someone goes from writing a song in their bedroom to having it streamed by millions of people.
Tonal & Implicit IntentMy cousin just called Taylor Swift ‘overrated’ at dinner. How do you even respond to that?
Urgency & Stress DetectionMy niece swallowed a couple coins, and I have no idea if I should take her to urgent care - what’s the first thing I should check?
ReasoningYou know, I started to say I want a place with outdoor seating but, actually, with how noisy Main Street is, maybe that’s not a good idea after all. What kinda spot would work best for catching up with an old friend I haven’t seen in years?
Table 8: The objective categories used to generate the prompt set, with an example prompt for each.

Each prompt was then recorded by human speakers, and each recording was annotated with metadata describing the speaker (gender, age), the audio quality (clean, noisy), and any disfluencies present (filler words, speech repair).

Judge Prompt Design

Each judge hears one audio file containing three clips, each announced by a spoken label: the user prompt, then “Response A” and “Response B” (the two systems, randomly assigned to A/B per recording). For every rubric it is asked to compare A and B on that one dimension and commit to an integer on the same −3…+3 scale the humans use, with explicit instructions to ignore clip order and length. It returns a short rationale plus the score as JSON. The absolute-MOS pass uses the analogous single-clip prompt on a 1–5 scale. Below is the live naturalness comparative template (all 15 rubrics share this shape, swapping in the dimension text):

You are an expert, impartial judge comparing two speech-to-speech model responses.

Dimension - Naturalness: whether each delivery sounds like a natural human speaker rather than synthetic or AI-generated. Focus on how it sounds.

You will hear ONE audio recording containing three clips, each announced by a spoken label:

1. "User prompt" - the user's prompt.

2. "Response A" - the first model response.

3. "Response B" - the second model response.

Compare Response A and Response B on the dimension above, and decide which is better and by how much, on this scale:

+3 = A is much better than B

+2 = A is better than B

+1 = A is slightly better than B

0 = about the same (tie)

-1 = B is slightly better than A

-2 = B is better than A

-3 = B is much better than A

Do NOT let the order in which you hear the responses influence you. Do NOT let response length influence you - a longer response is not automatically better. Reason first, then commit to a score.

Return ONLY a single JSON object:

{"reasoning": "<one or two sentences comparing A and B on this dimension>", "label": "<A | B | tie>", "score": <integer from -3 to 3>}

CMOS Inter-Rater Agreement

A natural interpretation of the MOS inter-rater agreement results would be that human ratings are strongly correlated, and we should expect a strong LALM judge to be strongly correlated as well. Inter-rater agreement on the CMOS results paints a more nuanced picture:

MetricFamilyαSplit-half rSplit-half ρCells (≥2)
relevancecontent+0.25+0.80+0.6540
answer qualitycontent+0.22+0.62+0.5140
instruction followingcontent+0.18+0.67+0.3710
helpfulnesscontent+0.13+0.69+0.5840
emotional appropriatenessinteraction+0.12+0.44+0.3540
appropriatenessacoustic+0.10+0.63+0.5840
registercontent+0.02+0.41+0.3340
engagementinteraction+0.01+0.42+0.1340
naturalnessacoustic−0.01+0.48+0.4140
pleasantnessacoustic−0.02+0.29+0.2340
speaker driftacoustic−0.02−0.00−0.0440
pronunciationacoustic−0.03+0.03+0.0640
reasoningcontent−0.04−0.47−0.365
audio qualityacoustic−0.07−0.13−0.2040
Table 9: Per-metric CMOS inter-rater agreement - Krippendorff's α and split-half Pearson r / Spearman ρ across human raters.

The Krippendorff’s alpha value reported above is a chance-corrected agreement metric - it tries to ask “controlling for the base-rate global bias, how much more often than chance are raters agreeing with each other?” A value of 1 means raters agree perfectly every time; 0 means ratings are completely random once you control for the base rate; -1 means raters disagree perfectly every time.

Two obvious things stick out from this table:

  • While CMOS content rubric split-half r and ρ largely track the corresponding MOS values, the acoustic correlations are significantly lower - indistinguishable from zero in some cases.
  • The reported Krippendorff’s alpha is approximately zero for all acoustic dimensions, meaning once you control for overall rater preference for one model vs. the other, the per-item preference ratings are pure chance.

At first glance these results may seem incompatible with the MOS results above, but upon deeper analysis the tension can be resolved, and the specific mechanism is a critical component to understanding LALM-as-judge reliability.

When modeling human preference, you can conceptually describe a given human pairwise preference rating as:

rating = μ (global gap between models) + vᵢ (item-specific effect) + noise

The point of evaluation is generally to build a strong estimate for μ, the overall preference for one model vs. another. In general you try to estimate μ by collecting ratings over a large number of items (so vᵢ averages to 0) with a large number of raters per item (so noise averages to 0). When the overall CMOS mean is high, but alpha is ~0, that’s telling us that humans do agree that one model is better than the other, but they don’t agree which samples that model is better at; in other words, μ can be high even if vᵢ is ~0.

Similarly, there are two reasons split-half r and ρ can be high even if alpha is 0:

  • Part of the “noise” term is an individual rater’s personal preference. This gets averaged out in split-half aggregation, but it doesn’t when calculating alpha.
  • Correlation is location- and scale-invariant - it only cares about whether two values move synchronously together, not about their absolute value and variance. Krippendorff’s alpha is not location- and scale-invariant, and two raters who are calibrated differently (different mean values and different variance in their ratings) will show as high-r but low-alpha.

The takeaway for our data is that we see strong preferences for many rubrics across both human and LALM judges for one model over the other, but we see significantly lower correlation on individual rating pairs. This is consistent with a strong global preference driving rating differences, with per-item preference differences containing much less signal. This is also consistent with MOS metrics indicating clear global preference despite being relatively saturated near 5/5.

Note that Krippendorff’s alpha is not necessarily the standard metric to report for model evaluation (bootstrapped confidence intervals and Gwet’s AC1/AC2 being more common), but we include Krippendorff’s alpha here as a relatively simple metric that captures the core dynamic we observe in our data well.

Pairwise Comparison Is More Reliable Than Pointwise Scoring

Across studies, models are significantly more consistent at pairwise preference (Comparative MOS) than at absolute pointwise scoring (MOS). This mirrors a long-standing result from human psychometrics: comparative judgments are easier to make consistently than absolute ones, which is precisely why CMOS protocols exist in the first place.

While CMOS is the generally preferred metric for this reason, The Coin Flip Judge points out that judges frequently declare a winner even when their own pointwise scores for the same pair show small, statistically insignificant gaps. In other words, a model expressing a pairwise preference may not be a reliable signal of a meaningful quality difference, so protocols that allow for ties or abstentions and metrics that treat near-tie verdicts as noise are important safeguards to incorporate into a judgment protocol.

References